Bill Connelly
Multiple Authors
Congratulations in advance to Oregon. If the Big Ten is to continue its recent streak of a different national champion for each season — Michigan in 2023, Ohio State in 2024, Indiana in 2025 — Dan Lanning’s Ducks are the most likely beneficiary.
This is certainly a heck of a streak, perpetrated by three different coaches and capping three very different cycles. Michigan’s title was the culmination of a nine-year quest and a three-year cycle of increasing brilliance. Ohio State’s was the once-per-decade aligning of the stars for college football’s consistently elite program. Indiana’s was the cap of a two-year bolt from the blue, maybe the most unexpected rise the sport has ever seen.
Maybe it’s indeed Oregon’s turn. The Ducks’ quest for the promised land has lasted a couple of decades and has been piqued by their three-year unbeaten streak against anyone that didn’t eventually reach the national title game. USC also has ramped up its recruiting in its chase for old glory, and virtually everyone else in the conference has to be telling themselves, “Well, if they can do it, why can’t we?” in regard to the Hoosiers’ surge.
Maybe 2026 is the year where we circle back to old names. Ohio State is starting the season first nationally in SP+, after all. Or maybe we’re just living in Indiana’s world now, and the Hoosiers are here to claim all the titles for the foreseeable future. Regardless, the Big Ten figures to be its typical, top-heavy, fascinating self in 2026. Let’s preview it.
2025 recap
Even by the Big Ten’s standards, 2025 was a particularly top-heavy season. The conference had three teams better than anyone in the SEC, and seven teams worse than anyone in the SEC. Indiana won it all, and Ohio State and Oregon went 25-1 against non-Hoosier teams. Outside of the top three, Iowa and Penn State (4-9 combined in one-score finishes) were deprived of potentially great seasons by devastatingly close losses — Penn State fired James Franklin after three of them in a row — and Michigan, Illinois and Minnesota (combined: 10-1) were propped up by the same thing.
Continuity table
The continuity table looks at each team’s returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2025 FBS starts from both returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2026. (Why “approximate”? Because schools sometimes make it very difficult to ascertain who redshirted and who didn’t.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.
With eight of the top 20 teams in returning production, the Big Ten is certainly Continuity Central, at least relatively speaking. Oregon is in fantastic shape in this regard, with 200 of last year’s starts returning, but Ohio State also ranks much higher here than great teams tended to in the pre-portal days. Even Indiana ranking 52nd after winning the national title is high considering how much title teams tend to lose from the NFL draft. I’m curious what it means for a Maryland, Nebraska or Minnesota — programs with pretty well-established ceilings of late — to rank as high as they do. How much improvement is possible within the Big Ten’s middle class?
2026 projections
Last year’s top five teams are this year’s top five teams, though this year’s most interesting projection is a few spots down. Penn State is seemingly impossible to project, especially since the Nittany Lions will be more Iowa State than PSU this season under new coach Matt Campbell. They could indeed be a borderline top-15 team or they could stumble out of the top 40 — neither would surprise me much.
Penn State’s projection becomes even more interesting when you realize how much easier the Nittany Lions’ schedule is than the other teams in their general light heavyweight class. The Big Ten has 10 projected top-40 teams, and PSU plays only three of them while Washington plays six and Michigan, USC and Iowa each play five. If we end up with a dark horse team threatening the top three, schedule strength might play a major role.
Five best games of 2026
Here are the five conference games that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under eight points.
Oct. 10: USC at Penn State. Maybe the first huge conference game of the season is an elimination game of sorts. PSU could announce itself as a dark horse with a win here, and USC, coming off home games against Oregon and Washington, will either be trying to stay in the title race or simply stay afloat.
Oct. 17: Ohio State at Indiana. For a conference desperately trying to ditch conference title games, the Big Ten sure had a great one last season.
Oct. 24: Indiana at Michigan. Curt Cignetti’s champs survived midseason trips to Iowa and Penn State last season and will face another tricky one here against Kyle Whittingham and his potentially chest-puffing, chip-on-their-shoulder Wolverines.
Nov. 7: Oregon at Ohio State. Only two Big Ten teams have winning records against Ohio State in this decade: Michigan (4-1) and Oregon (2-1). The Buckeyes — who lost their last home game to each — will host both of them within the last four weeks of the regular season.
Nov. 21: Indiana at Washington. Washington is a bit of a mystery this season, but amid all the customarily huge late-season Big Ten games, this one could be sneaky big.
My 10 favorite transfers
QB Josh Hoover, Indiana. I’m just saying, I like Hoover now more than I liked Fernando Mendoza at this time last season. There’s almost no way to clear the bar Mendoza ended up setting, but with 9,629 career passing yards and 71 career TDs, Hoover is just about the most battle-tested and proven QB Curt Cignetti could have added to replace his Heisman winner.
QB Colton Joseph, Wisconsin. As the pilot of one of my favorite offenses in the country last season, Joseph went for 2,264 passing yards, 1,100 non-sack rushing yards and 34 combined touchdowns at Old Dominion. It has been a while since the Badgers had a QB who could genuinely make big things happen, but Joseph will have a chance to become a program savior for Luke Fickell and Wisconsin.
RB Wayne Knight, UCLA. One of many James Madison transfers to follow Bob Chesney west, Knight erupted for 1,770 yards from scrimmage and 10 total TDs last season. In two seasons with Chesney at JMU, he topped 100 yards from scrimmage 12 times.
S Koi Perich, Oregon. Last season, Oregon got great things from an intraconference safety transfer (Dillion Thieneman). This year, the Ducks probably will get the same from Perich. The former Minnesota safety made 82 tackles with three TFLs, an interception, three pass breakups and an elite 26.3-yard kick return average.
DE John Henry Daley, Michigan. An early 2025 breakout star at Utah, Daley made at least two tackles for loss in five games last season and racked up 3.5 in his final game before rupturing his Achilles and sitting out the final two games of the season. His recovery has been shockingly quick, and he’s expected to be a full participant in fall camp. But we’ll see how long it takes him to get back his top-end explosiveness.
S Marcus Neal Jr., Penn State. New head coach Matt Campbell brought a lot of former Cyclones with him from Iowa State — too many, perhaps — but Neal is an almost surefire star. The 6-foot-1, 215-pound safety has solid ball-hawking capabilities (two INTs, three breakups last year) but is also at home near the line of scrimmage: He took part in 12 tackles at or behind the line.
RB Lendon Phillips Jr., Iowa. I love my small-school guys, and I love that Kirk Ferentz took one of the best durable backs in FCS: Phillips generated 2,116 yards from scrimmage last season at South Dakota, averaging 6.5 yards per carry. Between Phillips and former South Dakota head coach Travis Johansen now serving as Rutgers’ defensive coordinator, there will be plenty of Coyote influence in the Big Ten this season.
S Terry Moore, Ohio State. Ryan Day had some gaps to fill in the secondary and did a lovely job in grabbing Moore from Duke. He tore his ACL last season but was one of the best defenders in the ACC in 2024, racking up six TFLs, four interceptions and five breakups.
DE Sahir West, UCLA. A breakout JMU star as a redshirt freshman, West recorded seven sacks among 16 tackles for loss. That includes a five-TFL, three-sack performance in the Sun Belt championship game win that clinched a CFP berth for the Dukes.
NB Mister Clark, Purdue. I love a good do-it-all nickel back, and Clark did it all for Florida International last season. Rotating among nickel, safety and inside linebacker, he finished first on the team with 12 pass breakups, second in interceptions (three), third in run stops (six) and solo tackles (48) and fifth in TFLs (six).
Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders
Head coach: Ryan Day (eighth year, 82-12 overall)
2026 projection: first in SP+, 10.2 average wins (7.5 in the Big Ten)
Through 12 games last season, Ohio State was basically untouchable: Day’s Buckeyes survived a cautious slog between first-year starting QBs (Julian Sayin vs. Arch Manning) in a 14-7 win over Texas, then plowed through everyone in their path, winning the next 11 games by an average of 39-8. There were some training wheels in place for Sayin — the Buckeyes played at the slowest tempo in the country, and Sayin’s average pass distance was low — but they finished the season ranked first in success rate. They were ruthlessly efficient. Everything was going according to plan.
But when it was time to shift into gear late in the season, they couldn’t do it. Ohio State scored 24 total points against Indiana (in the Big Ten championship game) and Miami (in the CFP quarterfinals) as a conservative plan backfired in both games. Day elected to settle for a tying field goal try late (which was missed) on fourth-and-1 from the Indiana 9 instead of going for the lead. And against Miami, the Buckeyes trailed 14-0 at halftime and mounted a second-half comeback, but they continued to keep the tempo so low that they got only three real second-half possessions. They had a seven-play, four-minute punting drive in the fourth quarter. Totally unacceptable.
Now it’s time for the training wheels to come off. Sayin has experience, as does sophomore running back Bo Jackson, one of the nation’s better backs (and a huge yards-after-contact presence) by the end of the season. Sayin has a vastly experienced line in front of him — three starters return, including two All-Big Ten performers (guard Luke Montgomery and tackle Austin Siereveld) — and he, of course, still has Jeremiah Smith. The junior receiver will enjoy his last dance in Columbus after having produced 2,558 receiving yards and 29 total touchdowns in two seasons.
Smith will need some new dance partners, as Jackson and senior Brandon Inniss are the only other returnees targeted more than five times last year. But between transfer receivers Devin McCuin (UTSA) and Kyle Parker (LSU), transfer tight ends Hunter Welcing (Northwestern) and Mason Williams (Ohio) and five-star freshman Chris Henry Jr., someone excellent probably will emerge.
After the pro-to-college success of defensive coordinator Matt Patricia last season, Day dipped into that well again, hiring Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator. Smith was an NFL offensive coordinator or head coach for seven seasons, but he really only succeeded at Tennessee, where he had Derrick Henry to lean on, and he has plenty of safe, quick horizontal passing in his history. The run game will be almost unquestionably excellent, and the offense will still carve through most opponents. We’ll see what happens in the big games.
The offense also might need to carry more weight this season because of defensive regression. Patricia’s first defense was nearly perfect — the Buckeyes ranked first in defensive SP+ for the second straight year — but of the nine defenders who started all 14 games (few teams boasted that level of continuity and injury luck), only two return: safety Jaylen McClain and corner Jermaine Mathews Jr. Three Buckeyes defenders went in the first 11 picks of the NFL draft, and another two went in the second round.
Recruiting obviously hasn’t dropped off in Columbus, and new young stars will emerge, probably from a pool of sophomores, including end Zion Grady, linebacker Riley Pettijohn, corner Devin Sanchez and safety Leroy Roker III. But this could be a major transition year, as evidenced by the fact that Day signed eight defensive transfers. Two Alabama transfers — end Qua Russaw and tackle James Smith — could start, as might edge rusher Christian Alliegro (Wisconsin) and safeties Earl Little Jr. (Florida State) and Terry Moore (Duke).
The schedule is also much rougher. Manning and Texas get a rematch in Austin in Week 2, and the Buckeyes also face trips to Indiana, USC and Iowa, and welcome Oregon in early November. They’re the No. 1 team in the country, per SP+, so they’re projected favorites in all of these games, but unlike last season, cruise control won’t be as much of an option. The schedule and the defensive turnover might force them to play with more urgency this season, and honestly, that could benefit them significantly come December and January.
Head coach: Dan Lanning (fifth year, 48-8 overall)
2026 projection: second in SP+, 10.2 average wins (7.3 in the Big Ten)
It’s a record built to both impress and massively frustrate: In the past three seasons, Oregon is 1-5 against teams that ended up in the national title game and 37-0 against everyone else. Beating Oregon basically means you’re guaranteed greatness, but when does it get to be Oregon’s turn at greatness?
That’s pretty bad framing, honestly, as the Ducks are clearly already great: They’ve finished third, third and fourth, respectively, in SP+ since 2023, and they’ve had three top-10 offenses and a top-10 defense in that span. If a team keeps churning out this type of product, the breakthrough will come.
Despite a healthy amount of turnover, it’s pretty easy to assume another top-four team. That’s a testament to both Lanning and the star power that returns.
Quarterback Dante Moore elected to come back after throwing for 3,565 yards and 30 TDs in his first year as starter, and the skill corps is overloaded with potential after injuries made that group a bit of a turnstile last season. Sophomore running backs Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. rushed for 1,323 yards (7.0 per carry) and 20 TDs between them, and sophomore receivers Dakorien Moore and Jeremiah McClellan caught 72 balls for 1,054 yards and six scores. Add a healthy Evan Stewart (613 receiving yards in 2024), depth transfers in running back Simeon Price (Colorado) and receiver Iverson Hooks (UAB) and a new wave of super-blue-chip receivers (Jalen Lott, Kendre Harrison, Messiah Hampton), and it’s hard to imagine Moore won’t have what he needs.
The defense also brings back most of last season’s best names: Senior tackles A’Mauri Washington and Bear Alexander, outside linebackers Matayo Uiagalelei and Teitum Tuioti (combined: 26.5 TFLs, 15.5 sacks, eight pass breakups), inside linebacker Jerry Mixon and tackle transfers D’Antre Robinson (North Carolina) and Jerome Simmons (Louisiana-Monroe) give the Ducks a big, proven and ridiculously experienced front six. The secondary, meanwhile, might have the most upside in the country thanks to sophomore standouts in corner Brandon Finney Jr. and safety Aaron Flowers and a pair of thrilling transfers: safety Koi Perich (Minnesota) and nickel Carl Williams IV (Baylor). I would take Oregon’s defensive personnel over almost any other team.
The turnover comes in two primary departments. First, coordinators Will Stein (Kentucky) and Tosh Lupoi (Cal) took power-conference head coaching positions. Both were around for every bit of this three-year surge, which offers reason for anxiety even if Lanning knew they’d leave eventually and had co-coordinators ready to promote on both offense (Drew Mehringer) and defense (Chris Hampton). Second, the offensive line is getting a makeover for the second straight year after losing three key starters. All-American center Iapani Laloulu and guard Dave Iuli remain, but the Ducks could be reliant on at least one youngster (sophomore Fox Crader) and a newcomer (Yale transfer Michael Bennett III) at tackle. Oregon’s offensive line has been overwhelmed in each of the Ducks past two CFP losses, and we won’t know for a while if this one is up to the task.
If you tell me right now that Oregon will enjoy its long-awaited title breakthrough in 2026, I’ll believe it. Ohio State might still have more upside, but you’d rather have the Ducks’ problems than almost anyone else’s. Trips to USC (Week 4) and Ohio State (Week 10) will tell us a lot about their capabilities, and I’m guessing Oregon fans will like the answers we get.
Head coach: Curt Cignetti (third year, 27-2 overall)
2026 projection: fifth in SP+, 9.9 average wins (7.0 in the Big Ten)
Indiana is a damn miracle. It isn’t supposed to be possible to flip from 9-27 over three seasons to 27-2 over two. It isn’t supposed to be possible for a school from outside the class of well-established blue bloods to roll to a national title. It isn’t supposed to be possible for a staff to find as much of a scouting-and-development advantage as Cignetti and coordinators Mike Shanahan and Bryant Haines have of late.
It’s preposterous that Indiana, the losingest team in major college football history heading into last season, is now the defending national champion. Wonders never cease, and big tents are amazing. But trying to predict what IU might be capable of in 2026 is like throwing a dart blindfolded. No projection method could have seen the past two seasons coming, so how are we supposed to know what’s next?
Here’s what I do know about 2026 Indiana:
• I like this year’s transfer class better than last year’s. That’s scary. Quarterback Josh Hoover (TCU) has proved more than Fernando Mendoza had at this time last year (interceptions aside), while running back Turbo Richard has proved more than Roman Hemby had, receiver Nick Marsh (Michigan State) has scouts excited and receiver Shazz Preston (Tulane) was the best big-play threat on a CFP team. Cignetti also grabbed Wisconsin’s best offensive lineman (guard Joe Brunner), three defensive ends with A-grade pressure rates of 10% or higher (Kansas State’s Chiddi Obiazor and Tobi Osunsanmi and Notre Dame’s Josh Burnham), a 310-pound run disrupter in Joe Hjelle (Tulsa), three sturdy veterans for the secondary and, in sophomore corner Carson Williams (Montana State), one of the best players from last season’s FCS national champion. Cignetti again seemed to get exactly what he wanted from the portal.
• Receiver Charlie Becker was just about the best player in the country at the end of 2025. He had six receptions in IU’s first eight games, but after getting thrust into a larger role because of injuries, he caught 28 balls for 574 yards from there, averaging an otherworldly 3.7 yards per route. (Reference point: Jeremiah Smith averaged 3.5 yards per route in 2025.) He had three 100-yard games and game-changing catches in IU’s three tightest wins of the season. Becker, Marsh and Preston seem as if they’ll be a terrifying trio.
• With All-American left tackle Carter Smith, guards Bray Lynch and Drew Evans, defensive tackles Tyrique Tucker and Mario Landino and defensive end (and semifinal standout) Daniel Ndukwe, IU still has some seriously proven entities in the trenches. The defensive line was hit particularly hard by attrition and will definitely need those incoming transfers to click — especially with how important rushing offense and defense and good line play has been to this run — but until Cignetti lands some transfer duds, he gets the benefit of the doubt.
So many of last year’s difference-makers are gone — Mendoza, two 1,000-yard running backs, two 800-yard receivers, eight total NFL draft picks — but even if IU doesn’t successfully defend its national title this season, it’s hard to see this as anything but a top-10, or perhaps even top-five team, isn’t it? And even if you’re wary, Cignetti & Co. have earned more benefit of the doubt than any staff in recent college football history.
A couple of breaks away from a run
Head coach: Lincoln Riley (fifth year, 36-17 overall)
2026 projection: 13th in SP+, 7.8 average wins (5.0 in the Big Ten)
Shakira performed at the World Cup, Steven Spielberg has a movie about aliens coming out, another “Toy Story” sequel is going to try to make me cry, and two of the most important defensive coordinator jobs in the country went to veterans Gary Patterson (USC) and Will Muschamp (Texas). We evidently have some serious early-2000s nostalgia going on.
The 66-year-old Patterson hasn’t held a major college job since 2021, his last year as TCU’s head coach, and he hasn’t actually been in charge of a top-20 defense (per SP+) since 2014. His 4-2-5 defense was once the most influential in the game — as the spread offense came into vogue, he was able to see into the future and anticipate needs for defenses better than almost anyone. But now everyone uses a nickel back. And Riley is staking a pretty big season on Patterson still having some tricks up his sleeve.
With a good defense, USC is a playoff contender. Quarterback Jayden Maiava returns after a dynamite first full season as the Trojans’ starter. He threw for 3,711 yards and 24 TDs, and produced the highest Total QBR of any returning Big Ten starter.
Maiava’s tackles were a freshman (Justin Tauanuu) and sophomore (Tobias Raymond) last season, but he was still virtually unsackable and timed his scrambles perfectly. He was an excellent point guard for a great receiving corps.
That receiving corps will look completely different after the loss of seven of last season’s top eight. Sophomore Tanook Hines is about to become a star, and plenty of other youngsters could do the same — sophomores Zacharyus Williams or Corey Simms, blue-chip freshmen Boobie Feaster, Trent Mosley, Kayden Dixon-Wyatt or tight end Mark Bowman. But success from transfer Terrell Anderson, who averaged 16.1 yards per catch with an excellent 73.6% catch rate at NC State, could be vital.
Elsewhere, three line starters (plus four others who started at least once) return, along with a dynamite running back duo in King Miller and Waymond Jordan. Jordan was on his way to an enormous season before injury, and Miller averaged 4.2 yards per carry after contact as a freshman walk-on.
So yes, it’s all about the defense. The Trojans made fantastic strides under coordinator D’Anton Lynn, but he left for Penn State, and Riley replaced him with an old hand. Nine of 16 defenders with 200-plus snaps return, and seven were freshmen or sophomores. There’s potential star power in the likes of end Kameryn Crawford, sophomore tackle Jahkeem Stewart, linebacker Jadyn Walker and corner Marcelles Williams, and in end Zuriah Fisher (Penn State), tackle Alex VanSumeren (Michigan State), linebacker Deven Bryant (Washington) and corner Jontez Williams (Iowa State), Riley grabbed a few solid veterans from the portal. (He also took a flier, which I love, of course, on Georgetown tackling machine GianCarlo Rufo.) If a couple of mega-blue-chip freshmen — end Luke Wafle? tackle Tomuhini Topui? linebacker Talanoa Ili? corner Elbert Hill IV? — can make an early impact, this could be Riley’s most high-upside defense at USC. If Patterson deploys it properly, USC becomes one of 2026’s most fascinating teams.
Head coach: Kyle Whittingham (first year)
2026 projection: 14th in SP+, 7.5 average wins (5.0 in the Big Ten)
Whittingham is taking a surprising detour late in his career. In the more than 40 years since he began his coaching career as a BYU graduate assistant, he has coached for schools based in Utah and Idaho. That’s it. He spent the past two decades as Utah’s head coach, overseeing the Utes’ jump to a power conference (first the Pac-12, then the Big 12) and leading them to two AP top-10 finishes and eight seasons with double-digit wins. His defenses were frequently elite, and his offenses were usually very efficient (if not at all explosive). And last December, he went from looking as if he were going to retire to landing one of the biggest jobs in the sport.
Whittingham’s bona fides are top notch, but I do have two big questions.
1. Can the hard-nosed overachiever coach properly connect with and motivate a roster of blue-chippers? Going from managing a roster of chip-on-their-shoulder underdogs (relatively speaking) to leading higher-caliber recruits with higher expectations has tripped up plenty of coaches through the years. And that’s without getting into the fact that Whittingham is 66 years old. (Between Patterson and Whittingham, it’s a big year for 66-year-olds.)
2. How will the Jason Beck-Bryce Underwood partnership work? Beck is one of the more delightful offensive coordinators in the country and turned Devon Dampier, with dynamite running capabilities and a decent but limited arm, into the quarterback of a top-10 offense. (Utah was sixth in offensive SP+ last season.) But Beck will now call plays for Underwood, the No. 1 prospect in the 2025 recruiting class. Underwood flashed moments of excellence with his arm as a true freshman, and not including sacks he rushed 68 times for 506 yards; but Dampier rushed twice as much. Will Underwood run more? Will Beck seek similar efficiency with a more customary run game?
Those are the most pressing issues, but the questions obviously don’t stop there. New defensive coordinator Jay Hill — another successful and Utah-centric coach now working with far more blue-chippers than ever — will need to find the right chemistry among key returnees such as tackle Trey Pierce, linebacker Troy Bowles and corners Jyaire Hill and Zeke Berry and an important batch of seven transfers, including three from Utah: star end John Henry Daley, tackle Jonah Lea’ea and do-everything nickel Smith Snowden. Safety Chris Bracy (Memphis) could play a huge role too. An offensive line full of carryovers from last season’s young unit will need to click under longtime Whittingham assistant Jim Harding. And, well, someone will need to catch Underwood’s passes. Sophomore Andrew Marsh is a budding star — as is sophomore running back Jordan Marshall — but others will need to step up, be it slot man Channing Goodwin, tight end Zack Marshall, young transfers JJ Buchanan (Utah) or Jaime Ffrench Jr. (Texas) or touted freshman Salesi Moa. There’s obvious potential here but immediate success is far from guaranteed.
Head coach: Matt Campbell (first year)
2026 projection: 17th in SP+, 9.1 average wins (6.2 in the Big Ten)
Whoever succeeded James Franklin at Penn State was going to inherit the strangest possible set of expectations. Franklin’s Nittany Lions finished between fourth and 11th in SP+ seven times between 2016 and 2024, and even last season, when an epic two-week collapse ended Franklin’s tenure midseason, they played well enough down the stretch to finish 15th in SP+. Franklin couldn’t ever shake the “can’t get over the hump” aura, but he did win a Big Ten title (2016), reached a CFP semifinal (2024) and finished in the AP top 15 six times. The baseline level expected of Campbell moving forward is quite high.
Campbell achieved almost unfathomable success in his decade at Iowa State, but in Ames that meant two top-15 finishes and a single SP+ top-20 team. He has brought 24 former Cyclones with him to State College, including about 11 to 13 starters, but they played for a team that ranked 33rd in SP+ last season; Penn State hasn’t ranked that low since 2015. Typically when we see a team undergoing this much turnover, the replacements are coming from teams that were actually better the year before.
And to be sure, there’s massive turnover in State College this season: Only seven of 35 players with 200-plus snaps last season return, and only three were starters. (Linebacker Tony Rojas, a 2024 star who sat out most of last season, probably should count as a fourth starter.)
The defense should still be strong. Rojas and nickel Zion Tracy are excellent, corner Audavion Collins is battle tested, and two sophomores, end Yvan Kemajou and corner Daryus Dixson, were exciting backups last season. Campbell brought most of ISU’s better defenders with him, including linebackers Kooper Ebel and Caleb Bacon, corner Jeremiah Cooper and safeties Marcus Neal Jr. and Jamison Patton. Transfer tackles Keanu Williams (UCLA), Siale Taupaki (UCLA), Armstrong Nnodim (Oklahoma State) and Dallas Vakalahi (Utah) are all listed at 319 pounds or heavier, and new coordinator D’Anton Lynn inherits a stronger defensive culture than the one he was working with at USC.
I’m less optimistic about the offense, which returns only tight end Andrew Rappleyea and guard Anthony Donkoh and will draw heavily from an ISU offense that ranked 63rd in offensive SP+. There will be key former Cyclones at quarterback (Rocco Becht), running back (Carson Hansen), wide receiver (Chase Sowell and Brett Eskildsen), tight end (Benjamin Brahmer and Gabe Burkle) and on the offensive line (guards Trevor Buhr and Vaea Ikakoula). Running back James Peoples (Ohio State) was an exciting addition, as were blue-chip freshman tackle Malachi Goodman and center Brock Riker (Texas State).
In all, projecting PSU 17th in the country feels about 10-15 spots too high to me, but with another cupcake-heavy nonconference slate and a conference opener against Wisconsin, Campbell’s Nittany Lions will have a chance to figure themselves out before the big challenges begin.
Head coach: Jedd Fisch (third year, 15-11)
2026 projection: 21st in SP+, 7.8 average wins (5.9 in the Big Ten)
Setting expectations is a tricky thing, but with the way the offseason began for Washington, there was almost nowhere to go but up. After a solid nine-win bounce-back campaign in Fisch’s second season in charge, Washington re-signed exciting young quarterback Demond Williams Jr., then lost him, and then got him back. He evidently got a little starry-eyed about his transfer portal earning potential, but he’s back in the fold, and he has spent most of the offseason insisting that he’s fully committed to UW.
Assuming no lasting repercussions from the saga — and honestly, my guess is that everything will be fine — the Huskies really should be pretty fun. The question will be whether they can take one more developmental step against really good defenses. Their four losses in 2025 came against the four best Big Ten defenses they faced (Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, Wisconsin), against which they averaged a dire 9.3 points and 4.3 yards per play. They toasted everyone else on the schedule to the form of 45.1 PPG and 7.2 yards per play, but with Iowa, Penn State, Indiana and Oregon on the schedule, 2026 will be defined by whether they can find a few more advantages against the best defenses.
Williams can run himself into trouble and take too many sacks, but his upside is massive: Counting sacks as pass attempts, he averaged 7.5 yards per dropback (solid) and 7.3 yards per carry (fantastic). His line returns four starters and adds both a G6 starter (Sam Houston’s Kolt Dieterich) and a blue-chip freshman (Kodi Greene), but his skill corps is far less proven after the loss of leading rusher Jonah Coleman and receiver Denzel Boston. Several sophomores — running back Jordan Washington, receivers Dezmen Roebuck and Chris Lawson — could become stars, and Fisch added a couple of veterans in running back Jayden Limar (Oregon) and receiver Christian Moss (Kennesaw State), but UW couldn’t beat great defenses with Coleman and Boston.
Washington surged from 36th to ninth in defensive SP+ in Ryan Walters’ first season as coordinator and should be really good again as long as new linemen click. The Huskies return key veterans in tackle Elinneus Davis, edge rusher Jacob Lane, linebacker Xe’ree Alexander and safety Alex McLaughlin, and a trio of sophomore DBs got their feet wet last season (nickel Rahshawn Clark, safety Rylon Dillard-Allen and corner Dylan Robinson). But of six tackles with 100-plus snaps, Davis is the only returnee. At least two transfers from a trio of Kai McClendon (Mississippi State), Darin Conley (Ball State) and DeSean Watts (Sacramento State) need to immediately contribute. Blue-chip freshman JD Hill might too.
Head coach: Kirk Ferentz (28th year, 213-128 overall)
2026 projection: 22nd in SP+, 8.0 average wins (5.2 in the Big Ten)
What’s the lowest you think the Iowa defense can rank? The Hawkeyes haven’t ranked lower than sixth in defensive SP+ since 2018. Coordinator Phil Parker has honed one of the most automatically fantastic units in the sport, and it has allowed Iowa to win games by scores of 7-3, 10-6, 10-7, 13-3, 14-7, 15-6, 13-10 (three times), 14-13, 17-10, 15-13 and 17-12 since he took over in 2012.
But Parker is dealing with spectacular turnover this fall: Only six of the 17 defenders with 200-plus snaps are back. Four players had more than six tackles for loss, and they’re all gone, as are both starting safeties and top cornerback TJ Hall. The cupboard isn’t bare: Tackle Bryce Hawthorne is a sturdy run stopper, linebacker Jayden Montgomery is experienced and reliable, Zach Lutmer is one of the league’s better nickel backs, and the three corners after Hall all return. But the talent pipeline was disrupted enough that Ferentz, who had never brought in more than nine total transfers in a season, brought in eight for the defense alone. Safety Tyler Brown (James Madison) and defensive end Lance Ingold (Northern Illinois) are proven FBS-level defenders, but most of the newcomers are from the FCS ranks. End Kahmari Brown (Elon) and sophomore safeties Anthony Hawkins (Villanova) and Xavier Styles (Robert Morris) all produced excellent disruption stats. If you told me Iowa finished sixth again in defensive SP+, I wouldn’t be totally surprised. But there are far more unknowns and far more holes to fill than usual.
Even if the defense does slip a hair, the offense has grown sturdy enough under Tim Lester that it can carry its weight now. Leading rusher Kamari Moulton and explosive sophomore Xavier Williams both return, and Ferentz added one of last season’s most exciting FCS backs in Lendon Phillips Jr. (1,921 yards and 19 TDs at South Dakota). All-America guard Kade Pieper and third-team all-conference tackle Trevor Lauck are the only returning starters up front, but most of the second string is intact, and the developmental pipeline is still solid. Plus, Iowa might have its best tight end in years with sophomore DJ Vonnahme, who averaged 15.0 yards per catch and 3.1 yards per route last season. He wasn’t used as frequently as players like Eli Stowers and Tanner Koziol, but no tight end was more efficient on a per-route basis.
Granted, even Iowa needs wideouts sometimes. Last season’s top four WRs are gone, and Lester will be asking for big things from 6-foot-4 junior Reece Vander Zee and a couple of FCS guys in sophomores Tony Diaz (Texas-Rio Grande Valley) and Evan James (Furman).
Oh right, quarterback. I almost forgot. Iowa enjoyed its first top-40 offensive SP+ ranking in five years despite throwing for only 1,856 yards last season, and though starter Mark Gronowski is gone, he didn’t exactly leave a towering bar for either junior Hank Brown or sophomore Jeremy Hecklinski to clear. With basic competence at QB, the Hawkeyes could have what they need for another top-40 unit.
Head coach: Bret Bielema (sixth year, 37-26 overall)
2026 projection: 32nd in SP+, 7.0 average wins (4.4 in the Big Ten)
You better knock out Illinois. If you don’t, Bielema’s Fighting Illini will make you regret it. Over the past three seasons, they’ve won 13 one-score games, the most in FBS, and their win percentage in these games (.765) is fifth best. Few coaches put off a more confident air than Bielema, and with reliable quarterback play and solid special teams, they’ve been a close-games machine of late.
One of those variables changes in 2026: Luke Altmyer is gone after a three-year run as Illinois’ starting quarterback. That could be a pretty big deal for the close-games formula, but Bielema did land an exciting transfer in Katin Houser (East Carolina). The Californian began his career at Michigan State but went 13-6 as a starter for the Pirates, and his passing stats were nearly identical to Altmyer’s in terms of completion rate, yards per completion and the like. He doesn’t scramble as well as Altmyer, but he takes fewer sacks.
Though leading receiver Hank Beatty is gone, Houser should still have a fun receiving corps with transfers Alex Perry (Florida International) and Jayshon Platt (Florida Atlantic) joining veterans Hudson Clement and Collin Dixon. Last season’s three leading backs — Ca’Lil Valentine, Kaden Feagin and Aidan Laughery — all return, though Feagin moved to tight end. This was an efficient if unexplosive run game last year, but only one starting lineman returns, and the Illini could start two transfers (Wisconsin’s Jake Renfro and Colorado State’s Christian Martin) plus perhaps a juco transfer. Illinois ranked in the offensive SP+ top 30 for the first time since 2001 last year, but that might be hard to replicate with a new line and new QB.
The defense is taking on an even bigger reset. Former Montana head coach Bobby Hauck takes over as coordinator, and only eight of 22 players with 200-plus snaps return, only four of 15 in the front six. The secondary should be a strength thanks to the return of safeties Xavier Scott (a 2024 star who was hurt last year) and Matthew Bailey, nickel Tanner Heckel and cornerback Juice Clarke. But Hauck will have to uncover a lot of new disruption up front, be it from transfers — end Ean Rhea (Emory and Henry), tackles Darrell Prater (Jacksonville State) and Carter Janki (Penn) or linebackers William Holmes (Utah State) and Robert Edmonson (Colorado State) — or unsung returnees such as end Joe Barna, tackle Pat Farrell or linebacker James Kreutz. Illinois has had only one top-40 defense, per SP+, since coordinator Ryan Walters left in 2022, and even though Hauck’s Montana teams always had a brilliantly aggressive streak, I’m not sure I trust the personnel here to deliver.
Head coach: Matt Rhule (fourth year, 19-19 overall)
2026 projection: 37th in SP+, 6.0 average wins (3.3 in the Big Ten)
I was very curious how the new era of player movement would impact the Matt Rhule Culture-Building Machine. At previous stops, the third year was when everything came together for Rhule.
Rhule’s first year at Temple and Baylor: 3-21 record, 84.0 average SP+ ranking
Rhule’s second year: 13-12 record, 71.5 average ranking
Rhule’s third year: 21-7 record, 34.0 average ranking
At Nebraska, he had engineered solid improvement, with the Huskers improving from 5-7 to 7-6 and from 66th to 47th in SP+. But Year 3 didn’t see a breakthrough — instead, the Cornhuskers basically replicated their 2024 numbers: 7-6 and 46th. The offense took a lovely step forward despite losing starting quarterback Dylan Raiola to injury, but the defense backslid after the departure of coordinator Tony White.
Things obviously aren’t going poorly — two straight winning seasons after nine straight sub-.500 seasons is by definition solid — but Rhule and the Huskers enter Year 4 with a strange sense of stagnation. Coordinator Dana Holgorsen has made the offense fun, and Rhule just replaced Raiola with a flawed but incredibly enjoyable transfer (UNLV’s Anthony Colandrea). But Rob Aurich will be NU’s fourth defensive coordinator in five seasons, and Rhule will be awfully reliant on transfers for a defensive turnaround. Culture building isn’t what it used to be, and we’ll see if Rhule can guide Nebraska higher up the ladder.
Colandrea really is fun. He has pretty scramble-heavy tendencies, but he doesn’t take nearly as many sacks as Raiola, and he was a far better big-play seeker last season, albeit in a conference with worse defenses than the Big Ten’s. His nine career multi-INT games suggest he can trust his own abilities too much at times, but he’ll have fun with receivers Nyziah Hunter and Jacory Barney Jr. With 1,400-yard rusher Emmett Johnson off to the pros, a couple of sophomores (Mekhi Nelson and Isaiah Mozee) will need to take charge at RB, but with three returning linemen and some exciting additions up front — guards Brendan Black (Iowa State) and Paul Mubenga (LSU) and tackle Tree Babalade (South Carolina) — the line should pave the way nicely.
Fresh from engineering a massive defensive course correction at San Diego State, Aurich takes over a defense in which (a) a number of newcomers will be asked to come up big and (b) many of last year’s best players were young. Sophomores such as ends Williams Nwaneri and Kade Pietrzak, corner Donovan Jones and safety Rex Guthrie could enjoy breakout seasons, but probably not without help from linebackers Owen Chambliss (SDSU) and Dexter Foster (Oregon State), corner Victor Evans III (Florida International) and safety Dwayne McDougle (SDSU).
This is clearly going to be a solid team, but unless Colandrea has another gear or Aurich is an absolute magician, a ranking in the 30s feels about right.
Head coach: P.J. Fleck (10th year, 66-44 overall)
2026 projection: 45th in SP+, 6.0 average wins (3.5 in the Big Ten)
Nine years, eight coordinator changes, seven bowls, six winning records and five top-25 defenses (per SP+). For all of his seemingly manic, energetic tendencies, Fleck has turned out to be a remarkably consistent coach. We know his Golden Gophers teams are going to play physical ball with something between good and great defense; we know they’re probably going to win more games than they lose; and we know their offensive limitations will backfire on them at times: They’ve scored 14 or fewer offensive points in 22 of Fleck’s 44 losses.
That includes four of last season’s five defeats. In three seasons with Greg Harbaugh Jr. as coordinator, Minnesota has averaged an offensive SP+ ranking of just 92.7. The Gophers haven’t had a top-50 offense since 2020. Even if you’re conservative by nature, you should be aiming higher than that. Quarterback Drake Lindsey took over as a redshirt freshman last season and made some big-time throws that excited Gophers fans, but at the end of the season he had only 2,382 passing yards (at a ghastly 9.7 per completion) and a 62.0 Total QBR, one of the Big Ten’s worst.
The 2026 offense will have quite a bit of experience, for what that’s worth. Lindsey, leading rusher Darius Taylor, two of three primary passing targets (including sophomore Jalen Smith) and three starting linemen return. Taylor has good hands and yards-after-contact capabilities, Smith and redshirt freshman running back Grant Washington are potentially explosive youngsters, and transfer receiver Noah Jennings (Cincinnati) could be a big-play threat. Fleck also added a couple of athletic but unproven former blue-chippers in receiver Perry Thompson (Auburn) and tackle Bennett Warren (Tennessee). But “potentially” and “could be” and “unproven” are tells — you have to squint pretty hard to see an offense capable of a major breakthrough.
The pressure will again be on the defense, then. That might work out all right. Second-year coordinator Danny Collins returns only nine of 17 players with 200-plus snaps, but that includes standout talents in end Anthony Smith (12.5 sacks), linebacker Maverick Baranowski (99 tackles, 13 run stops), corner John Nestor (six INTs, nine breakups) and safety Kerry Brown (five TFLs, two INTs). Fleck also was pretty aggressive in the portal, adding three big tackles, defensive end TJ Bush Jr. (California), linebacker Andrew Marshall (Eastern Michigan) and a couple of exciting smaller-school DBs in safety Mekhai Smith (Lehigh) and corner Parker Knutson (SW Minnesota State). This should be the Gophers’ fourth top-25 defense in six years, and it should lead the way to another bowl bid. But the offense will probably keep the ceiling relatively low again.
Head coach: Bob Chesney (first year)
2026 projection: 48th in SP+, 5.4 average wins (2.8 in the Big Ten)
Vibes can change in a heartbeat these days.
Awful: UCLA began last season 0-4, topping 14 points only once, giving up fewer than 35 only once and getting beaten by 33 against Utah and 25 against New Mexico. Deshaun Foster was fired after the third game — and after only the 15th of his tenure. It seemed he was hired as a cheap reach following Chip Kelly’s surprise departure, and the school cut bait quickly.
Great: Out of nowhere, the Bruins ripped off a three-game winning streak, all but ending the James Franklin era at Penn State with a stunning 42-37 upset, then all but ending the Jonathan Smith era at Michigan State with a 38-13 road blowout. They knocked off Maryland too.
Awful: As quickly as the run began, it ended. The Bruins lost their last five games of the season by an average of 42-12. They finished 98th in SP+, their worst ranking since 1963.
Good again: The school reinvested, luring James Madison’s Chesney across the country, then spending big to grab some of last year’s best JMU Dukes — running back Wayne Knight, receiver Landon Ellis, two All-Sun Belt linemen (Riley Robell and Carter Sweazie), defensive ends Sahir West and Aiden Gobaira, linebacker Drew Spinogatti and nickel DJ Barksdale. Chesney held on to up-and-down quarterback Nico Iamaleava, soon-to-be star guard Eugene Brooks, safety Cole Martin and an excellent corner in Rodrick Pleasant, and added exciting players from Oklahoma (linebacker Sammy Omosigho), Utah (safety Tao Johnson), California (defensive end Ryan McCulloch), San José State (receiver Leland Smith) and Utah Tech (defensive end Dallin Havea).
If it matters, Chesney is certainly working from new territory in the West. Most of his career to date has taken place in or near Pennsylvania. But it has been a hell of a career so far. He brought Assumption University to the Division III quarterfinals, brought Holy Cross to its first FCS quarterfinals, then brought JMU to the College Football Playoff in the Dukes’ fourth season in FBS. (And even though they got in on a technicality when ACC champion Duke finished unranked, they were better than the other mid-major representative, Tulane, and should have gotten in over the Green Wave anyway.)
Suddenly the Bruins have a head coach with 132 career wins (at the Group of 6, FCS and Division III levels) and proven production in nearly every unit. Obviously there’s going to be a jump for a lot of these guys moving to the Big Ten, but while I’m not going to predict a Cignetti-esque surge from Chesney & Co., there’s a lot to be excited about here. From a team that ranked 98th last season. Again: Vibes can change quickly.
Head coach: Mike Locksley (eighth year, 37-49 overall)
2026 projection: 53rd in SP+, 5.8 average wins (3.6 in the Big Ten)
Locksley is a brave man. After landing blue-chip quarterback Malik Washington, he immediately handed the freshman the keys, played loads of other youngsters and committed to making 2025 a year of learning and development. Considering he was already coming off a 4-8 collapse in 2024, and considering the risk of a development year when that QB can leave in the offseason, that takes some guts.
The gamble might pay off. Despite another 4-8 season, both Locksley and Washington are still in College Park, and Maryland heads into 2026 second nationally in returning production.
Washington definitely had some struggles in 2025: Among 17 Big Ten QBs who started at least seven games, he ranked 15th in Total QBR (57.6), 16th in success rate (40.8%) and 17th in completion rate (57.7%). He was brilliant at sack avoidance — he took the fewest sacks among these QBs despite attempting the most dropbacks — and is a great (and selective) scrambler. Some of his problems came from receivers who couldn’t hold on to his passes. But he also ranked 15th of 17 in catchable ball rate, per Sports Info Solutions, and he definitely threw some 100 mph fastballs off his receivers’ hands at short range. He was responsible for plenty of his own issues.
Locksley set about making some upgrades for Washington, grabbing receivers Na’eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding (Old Dominion) and Chris Durr Jr. (Wyoming), and tight end Preston Howard (Auburn). He also hired former Marshall and Jacksonville State offensive coordinator Clint Trickett, a former Dana Holgorsen quarterback who crafted a pretty fantastic run game at JSU last season. Durr has excellent hands, and Gladding was an explosive player in an explosive ODU offense. If sophomore running back DeJuan Williams develops after a tough first season, the skill corps will definitely improve. And of the nine linemen who started a game in 2025, five return, and three are sophomores or juniors.
The Terps improved from 74th to 56th in defensive SP+ in Ted Monachino’s first year as coordinator, and they return most of the reasons why. Thirteen of the 19 defenders with 200-plus snaps are back, including more exciting sophomores: ends Sidney Stewart and Zahir Mathis (a combined 20.5 TFLs and 13 sacks as freshmen), 350-pound tackle Bryce Jenkins, linebacker Carlton Smith and safety Messiah Delhomme. There are some solid veterans too — tackle Eyan Thomas, linebacker Daniel Wingate, nickel Dontay Joyner, dynamite corner Jamare Glasker — and Locksley used the portal only to add some depth on the line.
It’s hard to trust optimism or hope for a program that has experienced only brief runs of success and is under .500 under Locksley (and over pretty much whatever other time period you name). But Washington is in a better situation on offense, and the defense could be a top-40 unit. That should be enough for decent improvement, at least.
Head coach: Luke Fickell (fourth year, 17-21 overall)
2026 projection: 62nd in SP+, 5.4 average wins (3.5 in the Big Ten)
In early November, right around the time many expected Wisconsin to announce it was firing Fickell, the school instead announced the opposite. Despite a 15-19 record to date and a 2-6 record at that point in 2025, UW retained Fickell and committed to stronger financial assistance in the NIL universe.
Generally, “When in doubt, just keep the coach and try to support him better” is probably a path more schools should take — it’s cheaper than most buyouts and often as, or more, effective — and following the news, the Badgers proceeded to upset Washington and Illinois in their next two home games. Maybe a good omen of sorts?
A better omen: This year’s roster is more talented than last year’s. Fickell landed one of the more exciting quarterbacks in the portal in Old Dominion’s Colton Joseph, who threw for 2,624 yards, rushed for 1,100 more (not including sacks) and produced 34 combined touchdowns. He also grabbed strong yards-after-contact running backs in Abu Sama III (Iowa State) and Nate Palmer (TCU) to pair with junior Darrion Dupree, and he remade his secondary with the addition of starters from Arizona State (corner Javan Robinson) and Missouri (safety Marvin Burks Jr.), among others. He also added lots of good size on both lines, and after finding a Division III gem in safety Matt Jung, he dipped back into the well by grabbing a prolific Division III edge rusher: Liam Danitz, who made 21 TFLs and 15 sacks at Hope College last season.
With players such as Jung, linebacker Cooper Catalano and OLBs Sebastian Cheeks and Mason Posa returning, the defense should still be sound as long as there are enough defensive tackles to hold up. But then again, the defense has never been the issue for Fickell. The issue is that the defense has to be perfect. Wisconsin fell to 86th in offensive SP+ in Fickell’s first season (2023), and that was the high point. Replacing coordinator Phil Longo with Jeff Grimes last season made sense, but QB injuries immediately derailed any hope of progress. If Joseph stays healthy, he represents a massive upgrade, though he’ll need pass catchers. Only one returnee caught more than 11 balls last season (receiver Chris Brooks Jr.), and the only incoming transfer who did much last season was FCS transfer Jaylon Domingeaux (Southeastern Louisiana).
I’m not sure where the bar is set for Fickell this season and what he needs to do to earn a fifth season, but I’m confident that the Badgers will improve. Granted, that’s easy to do when you’re coming off of your worst season since 1990.
Head coach: David Braun (fourth year, 19-19 overall)
2026 projection: 49th in SP+, 5.4 average wins (2.8 in the Big Ten)
It’s suddenly pretty easy to craft an optimistic narrative around Northwestern football. Last season’s Wildcats team was their best in five years, finishing 51st in SP+ with top-30 defense and special teams units and mostly manhandling lesser teams. And though the offense still only occasionally carried its weight, David Braun hired Chip Kelly as offensive coordinator and brought him a fun dual-threat QB with Big Ten experience (Michigan State’s Aidan Chiles). The defense returns about half of its key playmakers and added a couple of FBS starters, and as much as it personally breaks my heart, they’ll move from their beautiful makeshift stadium off of Lake Michigan to their sparkly, new, redesigned Ryan Field in October. Heady times.
The schedule might tamp down some of the headiness. For all the connectivity we don’t get with 18-team conferences, Northwestern will be a one-team connectivity machine in 2026: The Wildcats will not only play each of the conference’s top three teams — they’ll play them all on the road. Damn. They’ll also host Penn State, Iowa and Illinois, meaning two-thirds of their Big Ten slate will come against the projected top half of the league.
Northwestern hasn’t ranked in the top 80 in offensive SP+ since 2018, so the bar is appropriately low for Kelly, but Braun made a bunch of transfer moves I really enjoy. Chiles is a fun athlete who takes few risks with his arm (and runs his way into far too many sacks with his legs), and Kelly will have beef everywhere he looks. Backs Caleb Komolafe and Gavin Sawchuk (Florida State) are physical and efficient, and Braun not only added three linemen who average 6-foot-7 and 328 pounds, he also added 225-pound running back Mar’Kel Porter (Bowling Green), 275-pound tight end Alex Honig (UConn) and one of the most exciting tight ends in the portal in Luke Dehnicke (Minnesota-Duluth), who recorded 1,119 receiving yards and 14 TDs as a freshman in Division II. Leading returning receivers Griffin Wilde and Hayden Eligon II aren’t small either. Kelly should have fun with this physical unit even if explosiveness is limited.
Offensive improvement would take some of the pressure off the defense, which should still have a strong starting lineup but might face some depth issues. Only six of 15 players with 200-plus snaps return, though all six — end Michael Kilbane, tackle Brendan Flakes, linebacker Braydon Brus, corner Josh Fussell, safety Robert Fitzgerald and nickel Braden Turner — are very good. Braun added linebacker Kobie McKinzie (Oklahoma) and corner Brenden Deasfernandes (Central Michigan) from the FBS ranks and took intriguing FCS fliers on tackle Glory Stephen-Wangboje (Sacred Heart) and corner Montae Pate (Weber State). It’s hard to stand out defensively in this conference, but Northwestern should hold its own as long as the injury bug doesn’t bite too hard.
The schedule definitely assures a pretty hard ceiling on what Northwestern might accomplish, but I like the vision here, and I’m betting the Wildcats score at least one pretty big upset.
Just looking for a path to 6-6
Head coach: Greg Schiano (18th season over two tenures, 99-108 overall)
2026 projection: 61st in SP+, 5.4 average wins (2.9 in the Big Ten)
Schiano had his best Rutgers offense since 2007 and went 4-8. Odd. The Scarlet Knights plummeted to 95th in defensive SP+ in 2025; they were both 131st nationally in success rate allowed and 136th, dead last, in yards allowed per successful play. This is just not something that is supposed to happen to a Schiano program.
Perhaps both by choice and necessity, Schiano is attempting a fix with a total teardown. Former South Dakota head coach Travis Johansen is the new defensive coordinator. It’s his first FBS job, and his lineup will be brand new: Of the 17 defenders with even 100-plus snaps, only two are back. Returnees combined for only two tackles for loss last season.
Schiano did sign quite a few disruptive defenders from the G6 and FCS levels: Ends J’Dan Burnett (Tulsa) and Malachi Davis (Toledo) combined for 12 sacks, tackle Rondo Porter (Appalachian State) made 7.5 TFLs at 295 pounds, linebackers Ty Morris (Rice) and Sean Allison (Drake) each made eight TFLs, and FCS corners Mikey Munn (South Dakota), Bradlee Jones (The Citadel) and Zahmir Dawud (Villanova) combined for seven INTs and 30 breakups. But even if a good starting 11 emerges, it’s hard to feel too confident in the depth.
The offense provides reason for optimism, though the Knights need a QB. It appears Athan Kaliakmanis’ successor will be either of two former blue-chippers: Boston College transfer Dylan Lonergan or sophomore AJ Surace. Lonergan is a reasonably known entity, but from an upside perspective it would probably be better if Surace won the job.
The QB of choice will have a pretty easy job: hand the ball to Antwan Raymond or throw it to KJ Duff. Scouts love Duff; he might be the second-best returning receiver in the conference.
Coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca might have some depth concerns — Duff, Raymond and running back transfer Clay Thevenin (Louisiana Tech) are the only players who caught more than 10 passes last season, and only two starting linemen return (with only two transfers coming in). But if Duff is healthy and the QB is at least decent, Rutgers will score plenty. Will opponents?
Head coach: Pat Fitzgerald (first year)
2026 projection: 67th in SP+, 4.4 average wins (2.7 in the Big Ten)
We should probably get the obvious part out of the way right up top: I really, really didn’t like Michigan State hiring Pat Fitzgerald: “Simply put: If Michigan State had employed Fitzgerald from 2019 to 2022, the school would have fired him. Jonathan Smith was just fired for going 4-15 in part of two seasons, and instead of embarking on a thorough replacement search, the school replaced him the very next day with a guy who went 4-20 in his past two years. […] Fitzgerald is still pretty young, and no one simply forgets how to coach. But with so little recent success and with so much recent change in the sport, I assumed he would need to prove himself at the G5 level before being handed the keys to a big-time program again. State is taking a massive risk.”
I wrote that about six months ago, and I don’t feel any differently now. But as I mentioned in that coaching grades piece, we’re wrong a lot, and pretty much any hire, no matter how risky, can succeed. If the Spartans enjoy a winning season for only the second time in the 2020s, this will be why:
• A good run game. Fitzgerald landed four transfer RBs, led by 1,240-yard rusher Cam Edwards (UConn), and though offensive line depth could turn out to be a massive issue, the addition of tackle Ben Murawski (UConn) and center Trent Fraley (North Dakota State) could be a major boon.
• An opportunistic secondary. Only three defenders return after logging even 100 snaps last year, so Fitzgerald had to load up on transfers. We’ll see if he has what he needs in the front six, but I like the additions in the back. Corners Tre Bell (Iowa State) and Tyran Chappell (Houston Christian), nickel Michael Richard (Louisiana Tech) and safety Devin Vaught (Maine) combined for 12 TFLs, 12 interceptions and 17 pass breakups last season; they all have a disruptive streak that could come in handy.
That’s really all I’ve got. Depth is going to be a major issue for the Spartans, which is perhaps what one would expect after years of losses and turnover. Sophomore quarterback Alessio Milivojevic will probably start by default unless four-star freshman Kayd Coffman develops quickly, the receiving corps is dramatically devoid of known playmakers unless slot Chrishon McCray or newcomer KK Smith (Notre Dame) surprise, and the offensive line will be only a couple of injuries away from relying on vastly unproven youngsters. On defense, I like the additions of defensive end Kenny Soares Jr. (NC State) and linebacker Dion Crawford (Buffalo), but there’s no proven size or pass rushing. If Fitzgerald does end up succeeding here, it probably won’t be in 2026.
Head coach: Barry Odom (second year, 2-10 overall)
2026 projection: 83rd in SP+, 3.5 average wins (2.0 in the Big Ten)
Purdue has always been a program capable of losing the plot for a while, from the 1940s (8-22-3 over four seasons), to the 1950s (20-32-2 over six), to the 1970s (seven losing seasons in eight years) and, especially, the 1980s and 1990s (15 losing seasons in 16). The Boilermakers regain their footing at times, but they’re always in danger of backsliding, and after winning 17 games in Jeff Brohm’s last two years in charge, they’ve gone just 7-29 in the past three years. And to add insult to injury, rival Indiana has ripped off an all-time surge at the same time. Ouch.
This is a pretty tough job, and it felt as if Odom was a pretty good guy to take it on. He came to West Lafayette after resurrecting the UNLV program, and though it’s the faintest praise imaginable, he did technically make improvements during last season’s frustrating 2-10 campaign, even if most were of the “nowhere to go but up” variety.
After bringing in a whopping 54 transfers last season, he eased off the throttle, signing only 29 this past offseason, but this is still going to be an extremely new two-deep: Only 10 of the 29 players who saw 200-plus snaps return, including only four of 14 on offense. Quarterback Ryan Browne could be decent with a better supporting cast, but improvement will have to come from transfers: running backs Fame Ijeboi (Minnesota), Jerrick Gibson (Texas) and Travis Terrell Jr. (Jackson State), receivers Asaad Waseem (Florida Atlantic), Xavier Townsend (Iowa State) and Bisi Owens (Penn), linemen Nuku Mafi (Oklahoma State) and Boaz Stanley (South Carolina), among others.
The defense boasts a bit more continuity and at least a few truly Big Ten-level contributors in the likes of tackle Ian Jeffries, linebacker Charles Correa and nickel Smiley Bradford. But new/old coordinator Kevin Kane — who returns to the job he held in 2023-24 under Ryan Walters — will also be reliant on a big batch of newbies. Odom added three pretty active 310-or-larger defensive tackles, and safeties Mister Clark (Florida International) and Jaden Mangham (Michigan) should help to assure that this defense has a solid spine. But even if it’s the more proven of the two units, it still feels like upside is limited here.
Many big anniversaries
I usually go with One Big Anniversary here, but historically, years that end in 6 have been pretty memorable for the Big Ten. I didn’t know which one to pick.
In 1936, Minnesota claimed its third national title in a row despite losing to a Northwestern team that won the conference.
In 1956, Forest Evashaevski’s Iowa Hawkeyes finished a program-best third in the AP poll with a 9-1 campaign and a 35-19 thumping of Oregon State in the Rose Bowl. (They would top themselves two seasons later by finishing second.)
In 1966, Michigan State took an all-time-great team to South Bend for a year-ending, No. 1 vs. No. 2 game-of-the-century battle and came away with one of the most frustrating ties in the history of the sport.
In 1986, Penn State won its second national title in five seasons with a 14-10 victory over Miami in a No. 1 vs. No. 2 Fiesta Bowl, one of the most hyped games of all time. A 6.5-point underdog, the Nittany Lions gained only 162 total yards but picked off Heisman winner Vinny Testaverde five times.
In 2006, Michigan and Ohio State played in maybe the biggest game in the history of the rivalry, a battle of 11-0 teams won by the host Buckeyes 42-39. Troy Smith locked up the Heisman with a 316-yard, four-touchdown performance.
In 2016, Michigan and Ohio State played in maybe the best game in the history of the rivalry, a 30-27 Ohio State win in double overtime. The Buckeyes overcame a 10-point second-half deficit to force overtime, and after J.T. Barrett converted a fourth-and-1 sneak by millimeters at best, Curtis Samuel scampered 15 yards for the winning score, preventing Michigan from qualifying for the Big Ten championship game (and, likely, the CFP).
Whew. That’s a tough set of anniversaries to top.
