If you are an investor, whether local or foreign, it is difficult to argue that Nigeria’s economy is not delivering.
The stock market has surged since the current administration took office in 2023. Fixed-income investors continue to enjoy some of the highest risk-free yields in years.
Real estate owners have watched asset values soar as currency adjustments repriced property markets. Even those who simply held dollars have recorded returns that many professional fund managers would envy.
Businesses with strong market positions have also done remarkably well. Companies with loyal customers and limited competition have largely succeeded in passing rising costs to consumers. Whether it is fuel, telecommunications or consumer goods, Nigerians may complain about prices, but they often have little choice but to keep buying.
For investors, this has been a golden era, for consumers, it has been something else entirely. That, to some extent, is how capitalism works.
Investors take risks and expect rewards. Businesses pursue profits and shareholders benefit when they succeed. The problem arises when the rewards of growth become concentrated while the burden of adjustment is spread across everyone else.
Just as Nigerian investors have not had it this good in years, Nigerian consumers have not had it this bad. Inflation has severely weakened purchasing power while wage growth has struggled to keep pace.
Food prices have risen dramatically, energy costs have surged, and transportation has become more expensive. Millions of households now spend a growing share of their income simply trying to maintain living standards that were already modest by global standards.
The hardship is no longer theoretical or imagined, it is visible in markets, offices and homes across the country.
Recent GDP figures showed growth of 3.89 percent in the first quarter of 2026. While respectable on paper, it remains insufficient for a country with Nigeria’s demographics and employment needs. Millions of young Nigerians enter the labour market every year. Growth that boosts asset prices but fails to create enough jobs will not solve the poverty challenge.
Nigeria needs a new deal.
Not a reversal of reforms but a second phase focused on translating macroeconomic gains into household prosperity. Most economists would agree that consumers cannot benefit from reforms unless investors see opportunities first. Capital must move before jobs can be created. The challenge is that the transmission mechanism appears weak because while investors are seeing the benefits, consumers are still waiting for their invitation.
The first priority should be unlocking consumer credit at scale. Nigeria lacks a functional mass-market credit system that can help salary earners pay for essential necessities of life without having to dole out money upfront.
Government should work with the Central Bank to establish a national credit-scoring framework that incorporates banking records, telecom usage, utility payments and verified transaction histories. Countries such as Brazil and South Korea expanded consumption and household wealth through similar systems.
However, consumer credit cannot thrive in an economy where borrowing costs remain prohibitively high. Interest rates must eventually come down, but not through political directives. The sustainable solution is to eliminate the structural drivers of inflation.
Poor logistics, energy shortages, transport inefficiencies, supply-chain disruptions and foreign-exchange constraints all push prices higher. As these bottlenecks are addressed, inflation falls naturally and interest rates can follow.
Nigerians do not need artificially cheap money. They need an economy where affordable credit becomes possible because the fundamentals have improved.
The second priority is exports. Many of the companies that have benefited from recent reforms are stronger, larger and more profitable today. Government should now focus on helping them compete internationally. Export bottlenecks at ports, customs and logistics corridors continue to undermine competitiveness.
Every successful exporter creates jobs, earns foreign exchange and strengthens the economy. Nigeria cannot consume its way to prosperity. It must increasingly produce and export its way there.
The third priority is jobs and skills. One of Nigeria’s biggest economic contradictions is that businesses complain about talent shortages while millions remain unemployed. The country suffers from a severe skills-to-jobs mismatch.
A National Apprenticeship Tax Credit could help bridge that gap. Businesses that train and certify apprentices should receive targeted tax incentives. Government sets standards, while the private sector provides training and employment pathways. Rather than creating endless public-sector programmes, policymakers should create incentives for businesses to develop the workforce they need.
The fourth priority is democratizing wealth creation. One reason investors are thriving while consumers are struggling is that too few Nigerians participate in the ownership economy. Most people earn income only from labour while very few earn income from capital.
Government should encourage more successful Nigerian companies to list on the stock exchange. Many of the country’s largest and most profitable businesses remain privately held, limiting wealth creation to a small circle of owners and institutional investors.
A broader and deeper capital market would allow ordinary Nigerians to participate directly in economic growth. The average Nigerian should be building wealth through productive investments rather than chasing sports betting jackpots or the latest Ponzi scheme promising impossible returns.
When citizens own shares in productive businesses, they benefit directly from economic expansion. Dividend payments become household income, and wealth creation becomes more inclusive. Economic growth ceases to be something people read about in newspapers and becomes something they experience in their bank accounts. An inclusive capital market is a poverty-reduction strategy.
Ultimately, no economy can thrive indefinitely when investors celebrate while consumers struggle. Strong capital markets are desirable. Attractive yields are welcome. Rising asset values are positive. But economic success cannot be measured solely by stock indices, treasury-bill rates or property prices.
An economy cannot be judged solely by how well its investors sleep at night. It must also be judged by how comfortably its consumers wake up in the morning. For now, investors are enjoying a remarkable run. The challenge for government is ensuring that consumers eventually join the party rather than merely paying for it.
